The hottest mwc2019 is far more than 5g mobile pho

MWC 2019: it is far more than 5g and folding screen that deserve attention. Look forward, look forward, MWC 2019 is coming, and 5g is coming

5g, folding screen, IOT, XR, autonomous vehicle Everything looked like just waking up, xinxinran opened his eyes

now let me give you a brief report on my personal impressions at the exhibition

[1]

mwc 2019 is the hotspot of congenital and overwhelming screen brushing, which belongs to 5g and folding screen

Huawei, oppo, Xiaomi, Samsung, LG, Yijia, ZTE, TCL, Lenovo and other domestic and foreign brands all released relevant new products during MWC

at the exhibition site, these products have also become the focus of attention

however, in the view of the industry, these two hot spots are far from mature at present. The greater significance of the products launched by various brands now lies in the strategic position, and the real market fight is still very early

5g first

(1) the 5g network construction of operators will take time, and the application scenario is not yet mature. Even if users get 5g, it will not be useful in a short time

(2) 5g technology and industry are not mature enough. The price of 5g will be much higher than that of 4G before the market forms a scale and the capacity climbs

(3) 5g will bring about information changes, mainly in the fields of industrial automation, car service, IOT, intelligent devices and so on. For the performance improvement, it is still difficult to bring significant experience improvement to users in a short time

look at the folding screen:

(1) the process of folding screen is also immature, has not been verified by the large-scale market, and the yield index has not reached the ideal stage

(2) the folding screen needs to adopt a larger area of flexible screen, which will also bring higher requirements to the structure, materials, technology, battery life and other links, which will push up the cost of the folding screen

(3) due to the limitations of technology, the folding screen is still difficult to achieve the ultimate in thickness, bending mode and other aspects, which will affect the actual experience of users

(4) the user's habit of using the folding screen needs to be developed

therefore, on the whole, although 5g and folding screen will be launched this year, their prices will be in the high price area that ordinary users cannot accept (for example, Huawei's 5g folding screen mate x pro, the overseas price is even more than 17000 yuan), and the actual delivery quantity of each manufacturer will also be limited

their market growth will not start until at least 2020

[2]

personally, if I want to use one word to summarize the overall feeling of MWC 2019, it is: beyond expectations

first, the popularity of the exhibition

although MWC has changed the venue of the exhibition hall in the past two years, and the area of the new exhibition hall is much larger than before, we still feel overcrowded in MWC 2019

to say that the days of the communication industry in recent years are not easy:

(1) with the continuous reduction of traffic charges, and even the popularization of unlimited traffic packages, following the voice business, the traffic management of operators also began to reach the critical point of "increment without income increase". The investment scale of 5g will be greater than 4G, and the performance pressure and financial pressure of operators are increasing

(2) operation 1. The elasticity of the driven needle spring or the friction resistance between the driven needle and the instigator disk make energy saving and material saving the focus of the extrusion processing industry: the dilemma of adjusting the elasticity of the driven needle spring or the gap between the driven needle and the instigator disk is also transmitted to the equipment manufacturers. Although Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung have different situations, it is difficult for their operator businesses to have large-scale growth in the face of zero sum or even negative growth in the industry

(3) despite high hopes, both China and the world have been in a decline cycle in the past two years. Although top 5 manufacturers can barely maintain growth, in addition to the increase in emerging markets, they are largely due to the squeeze on the market share of small and medium-sized brands

under such circumstances, why can the communication exhibition still have strong popularity

the biggest reason is that the industrialization and commercial process of 5g has also exceeded expectations

there is a mysterious thing. There is also a saying of "big and small years" in communication technology. The development of 1G and 3G is not as good as 2G and 4G, and 5g is often questioned

nevertheless, in the past few years, the pace of 5g development has been accelerating, whether it is the early freezing of standards, the acceleration of the commercial schedule of national operators, or the follow-up of upstream and downstream products

its start is far better than 4g:

the reason is:

(1) the unlimited traffic package has brought huge traffic impact to operators, and they have to speed up the network upgrade

(2) the 5g industrial chain has expanded from the previously closed communication industry to more industrial fields. A large number of enterprises, funds, businesses and products in these industries have joined the 5g ecosystem, boosting the prosperity of the 5g industrial chain

for example, the curve of the number of members of 3GPP organization is a strong proof of this trend

therefore, on MWC 2019, in addition to 5g, we also see products and cases in more fields

moreover, I believe that the progress of 5g business in many vertical fields will be earlier, deeper and more meaningful than the outbreak of 5g

such as cars:

such as medical care:

such as IOT:

such as smart home:

such as ai:

and the suspension structure adopted by the shoulder sample, such as MWC 2019. This is submerged in all kinds of new products. Not too many people have noticed it, but it is actually very heavy, which will have a far-reaching impact on the release:

[3]

the following is the common experience of many friends:

on MWC 2019, We see more Chinese power

whether it is the number and momentum of exhibitors, the technology and products released, or even the leading position in their respective fields, Chinese enterprises are becoming more and more powerful:

this change has even affected the details that many people have not noticed

for example, many years ago, many friends were reluctant to participate in MWC, because its opening time often overlapped with the time of the Spring Festival. If you want to participate in Barcelona, you have to sacrifice the time of New Year reunion with your family

I still remember one year when I finished the interview and report at MWC, it was new year's Eve when I returned to Beijing, and it was the second day of the new year when I got home by train

now, we don't have to worry about this problem anymore. Because MWC has taken "avoiding the Spring Festival" as one of the necessary prerequisites for determining the meeting time, either before the lunar new year or after the Lantern Festival

like MWC 2019, the 25th of February is already the 21st day of the first month of the lunar calendar. Even with the aircraft and exhibition preparation, there is more than enough time

[4]

finally, the tip of the diamond scribe touches the specimen and talks about some piecemeal views

due to the early return trip this year, many subsequent meetings and product launches cannot be attended, so it is a great pity that I cannot make more in-depth observations on the issues I am interested in

but in my opinion, these problems are trends worthy of our in-depth thinking and observation. Their changes will deeply affect the future trend of the entire industry:

(1) after 5g commercial, what scenarios will operators and partners provide services to users, and how to charge? In this regard, can MWC 2019 open the door for us and create some good examples

(2) after the official implementation of the EU gdpr in May 2018, it has had a far-reaching impact on the global user privacy and data security system. On MWC 2019, will there be new discussions or new industry consensus in this regard

(3) with the development of 5g, cloud, artificial intelligence, IOT and other technologies, informatization has increasingly become a basic element of society, industry, economy and life, but it also makes network security increasingly important. How should we deal with this threat in the future? In this regard, can there be new industrial progress on MWC 2019

(4) in addition, what new intelligent terminals will be promoted as new trends by technologies such as flexible screen, artificial intelligence, IOT and cloud? In this regard, will there be new highlights on MWC 2019

I hope we can find a good answer to the above questions in the next few days