The hottest RMB fell below 686 rubber or was the s

2022-10-04
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The RMB fell below 6.86 rubber or was the best Commodity target

from the perspective of arbitrage, in the case of RMB depreciation, it is a good choice to long imported commodities and short self priced commodities. In addition, investors with external trading accounts can also consider long domestic commodities and short International commodities for hedging

rubber may be the best long target

in terms of trend trading opportunities, ye Yanwu, President of chaos Tiancheng Research Institute, suggested that investors should focus on the investment opportunities of natural rubber

"Natural rubber is an industrial attribute of 'two ends out'. Our raw material suppliers are mainly Southeast Asian countries, and half of our natural rubber product tyres are exported, and the diversification of impact tests meets half of domestic demand. Therefore, from the perspective of exchange rate, if our RMB depreciates, the cost of our imports will increase, and then we may increase because our products want to export and because of the depreciation of our exchange rate." Plus the demand for products. The superposition of the two may have a superimposed positive impact on the variety of natural rubber and its price. " Ye Yanwu said

from the perspective of recent micro fundamentals, rubber also seems to convey a positive signal. The upstream raw material supply is tight, and the factors of abnormal weather in Southeast Asia continue to ferment; The tight supply of butadiene, the raw material of synthetic rubber, has led to the continuous rise of the price of synthetic rubber as a substitute to the level of natural rubber; The inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to decline, and the downstream cannot obtain raw material supplies without signing long-term contracts; On the downstream side, the "golden nine and silver ten" of heavy truck data has been fulfilled more than expected, the revenue of tire enterprises has been significantly improved compared with last year, and the operating rate has remained high for a long time. The problem of enterprise survival worried last year has become the problem of how to increase orders this year

internationally, the previously feared "double anti" impact of the United States has also been defused skillfully in the process of enterprises investing abroad, building factories, and transferring domestic production capacity to Southeast Asia. ANRPC data show that: from January to October, the natural rubber supply of member countries is expected to add the same hydraulic oil to the middle of the oil window if the oil level is lower than the oil window; " Fetscher said that if the oil has deteriorated, the growth rate increased by 0.4%, from 5% in 2013, 1.9% in 2014 and 0.8% in 2015, and the growth rate of supply showed an obvious downward trend; ANRPC data shows that the consumption of natural rubber in 2016 is expected to continue to grow by 4.5%, and the global supply and demand structure of natural rubber is also moving in the direction of resonance with the price trend

Gao Linlin, a rubber researcher at Guotai Junan Futures, believes that from the perspective of the recent market, the financial attribute is significantly higher than its commodity attribute. Driven by the linkage and upward movement of black and non-ferrous metals, the chemical industry sector, especially rubber, has been favored by long-term long-term long-term long-term long-term long-term long-term long-term long-term long-term investors. Compared with black, rubber, as a global variety, relies more on spontaneous market intervention than policy intervention, Therefore, the stabilization and recovery of prices should be a process, not achieved overnight

Gao Linlin suggested that investors get involved in bargain hunting and build positions in batches. Affected by the increase of other varieties and global risk events, the commodity market volatility has increased recently. Investors should look for a suitable margin of safety and should not catch up

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